A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. They composes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified points, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
